Nigeria’s foreign trade has grown strongly under President Bola Tinubu, with an increase in exports, an expansion of total trade and trade surpluses recorded every quarter since mid-2023.
New data from the Office of National Statistics shows that by the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s total trade reached £38.93 trillion, while the trade surplus widened to £6.69 trillion, one of the strongest positions in recent years.
Many economists link this performance to the impact of naira volatility on imports. Historically, when the naira devalues or weakens, imports tend to fall almost immediately, although export responses depend on policy and other economic factors. In the short term, currency movements have a strong effect on Nigeria’s import levels.
A review of the figures shows a sharp increase in trade since the beginning of the Tinubu administration. In the second quarter of 2023, total trade amounted to 12.74 billion pounds, with exports of 6.44 billion pounds and imports of 6.30 billion pounds. This left a small surplus of £0.13bn.
In the third quarter of 2023, exports increased to 10.35 billion pounds, while imports stood at 9.04 billion pounds, raising the surplus to 1.32 billion pounds. Trade growth became even stronger in 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, exports increased to 19.18 trillion pounds, imports increased to 14.75 trillion pounds and the surplus expanded dramatically to 4.43 trillion pounds.
In the second quarter of 2024, exports increased further to 17.71 billion pounds, while imports decreased slightly to 13.96 billion pounds, producing a surplus of 3.75 billion pounds. In the third quarter of 2024, exports increased to 20.54 billion pounds, imports were 15.28 billion pounds and the surplus reached 5.23 billion pounds, the highest that year.
The momentum continued in 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, exports increased to 20.60 billion pounds, imports were 15.43 billion pounds and the surplus stood at 5.17 billion pounds. In the second quarter of 2025, exports rose to £22.75bn against imports of £15.29bn, taking the surplus to a record £7.46bn.
In the third quarter of 2025, exports increased to £22.81 billion, while imports increased to £16.12 billion. Total trade amounted to £38.93 billion, with a strong surplus of £6.69 billion.
Analysts say the naira’s weakness has likely boosted non-oil exports and reduced imports, at least in the short term. Oil exporters also benefit when currency depreciation coincides with higher global oil prices.
Commenting on the figures, Director-General of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the continued trade surpluses reflect broader policy changes and economic adjustments, not just a profound change in the structure of exports.
“The data shows a sharp rise in trade values, largely driven by exchange rate liberalization and higher oil export revenues in the near term,” Yusuf said.
He added that while the surplus is good news, much of the export growth is still based on oil and Nigeria is highly dependent on imports. Rising imports in 2024 and 2025 also point to improved domestic demand.
“The key challenge is to convert these large trade figures into real economic gains by diversifying exports, strengthening manufacturing, improving logistics and reducing dependence on imports,” Yusuf said.
Overall, analysts describe the data as encouraging but mixed. Nigeria is gaining more from trade and maintaining surpluses, but maintaining these gains will require deeper reforms as the Tinubu administration moves into the second half of its term.