Partial crop losses on Nigerian farms have more than tripled in five years, rising from about six percent of cultivated plots in the 2018/19 season to more than 20 percent in 2023/24, according to a World Bank analysis of General Household Survey Panel data.
The sharp rise, driven by climate crises, environmental stress and worsening insecurity, is raising new alarms about food security, rural livelihoods and the long-term sustainability of Africa’s largest agricultural economy. Agriculture still accounts for about a quarter of Nigeria’s gross domestic product and employs more than a third of the workforce, supporting staple crops such as cassava, yam, maize and cowpea, along with cash crops such as cocoa and palm oil.
While crop failures remained relatively stable over the period, partial losses (where plants are damaged or yields are significantly reduced without complete destruction) increased. The pattern affected both seasonal field crops and permanent tree crops.
Climate and environmental crises remained the dominant cause across the country, responsible for more than a third of all losses in both seasons and almost two-thirds of partial losses in 2023/24. Seasonal crops were particularly vulnerable to flooding, excessive rainfall and related disturbances. However, conflict-related losses have almost doubled and now account for about a fifth of national crop losses. In parts of the northeast, northwest and north-central areas, insecurity has become a major threat, sometimes rivaling climate risks. Unlike climate damage, which primarily reduces yields, violence can isolate farmers from land, work, inputs and markets, or force them to abandon their plots entirely.
Regional patterns changed noticeably. In 2018/19, the South-South region recorded the highest total losses, at 13.1 percent of plots, largely due to weather. Losses were much smaller in the north central (4.3 percent) and northeast (4.6 percent). By 2023/24, the South West had risen to 11.9 per cent and the South-South remained high at 12.8 per cent. The most dramatic change occurred in the northeast, where more than 40 percent of plots suffered partial losses, a combination of weather damage and insecurity.
Field crops, historically less affected than tree crops in absolute terms, experienced losses that doubled, while tree crop losses decreased slightly. Climate shocks drove much of the increase among staples such as corn and cowpeas, critical to household food supplies and rural incomes. Conflicts and plagues affect both categories.
A related warning sign is the increase in planted area that remains completely unharvested. National turnout increased significantly, with the steepest increases in the Northeast (from about 7 percent to nearly 27 percent) and the South-South. Beans and cowpeas recorded the highest proportion of unharvested products, followed by cassava and maize. Yam was the only major crop to show a decline, possibly due to its larger geographical spread and shorter growing cycle.
The findings underscore that simply expanding production is no longer enough.
Analysts recommend greater investment in drainage and flood control infrastructure, climate-smart agricultural practices and resilient seed varieties, especially in flood-prone areas.
They also call for closer coordination between agricultural support and security measures so that input distribution, extension services and livelihood programs reflect local security realities and keep farmers on their land.
Better access to climate information, pest management and advisory services is equally essential.
Without stronger protection against climate and security crises, increasing partial losses risk undermining food availability, eroding rural incomes and reversing gains in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
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