The African Development Bank (AFDB) has projected the real growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria to moderate 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, below 3.4 percent in 2024, largely due to persistent structural bottlenecks and increased global uncertainty.
The AFDB urged Nigeria to adopt a more strategic and coordinated approach for capital mobilization as the country advances its economic reform agenda.
This is contained in the recently launched Nigeria Country Focus Report (CFR), entitled “which makes Nigeria capital work better for its development.”
The report highlights the urgent need to improve the way in which Nigeria mobilizes, manages and invests all capital forms: fiscal, financial, human, natural and commercial forms to accelerate structural transformation and encourage inclusive growth.
The launch occurs in the middle of the bold economic reforms of Nigeria, including the elimination of fuel subsidies, the unification of exchange rates and tax reforms.
These measures reflect the government's commitment to long -term macroeconomic stability and self -sufficient development.
“Despite this impulse, the report projects that real GDP growth will moderate 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, below 3.4 percent in 2024, largely due to persistent structural bottlenecks and greater global uncertainty,” said the AFDB.
In his opening comments, Dr. Abdul Kamara, general director of Nigeria at the African Development Bank, emphasized the importance of this moment for the country's development agenda.
He said: “This report is both timely and practical. Nigeria is demonstrating a bold leadership through difficult but necessary reforms. Its capital is more than financial; including human, natural and institutional assets. What this report shows is the need for integrated strategies that make each capital form work together to boost inclusive and sustainable transformation.”
Among the reports of the report is the urgent need to improve the mobilization of national resources to close the annual development gap of Nigeria of USD 31.5 billion.
Although tax reforms and the expansion of non -oil income are beginning to generate results, the informal sector remains large, the low fiscal compliance and the relationship imposed on GDP among the lowest in the region.
Olufmi Oarinde, head of the Division of Implementation of Fiscal and Fiscal Reforms in the Federal Internal Income Service (FIRS), officially launched the report on behalf of the Federal Government, pointing to its relevance for the current fiscal care of Nigeria.
He said: “We appreciate the efforts of the African Development Bank to contribute to this important report, which reflects our continuous work in fiscal and fiscal reforms. Precision captures the progress we are making and the challenges we face when strengthening the public finance system of Nigeria.”
To meet the development objectives, the CFR recommends expanding the tax base, improving compliance, reducing fiscal expenses and investing in the institutional capacity of income -generating agencies, while guaranteeing public spending is efficient and shocking.
The report also highlights governance limitations as key obstacles to effective capital mobilization; Fragmented supervision, overlapping mandates and limited institutional coordination continue to undermine public confidence and investment confidence.
In this context, Dr. Jacob Oduor, the main economist of Western Africa in the African Development Bank, emphasized that policy tools such as market -based exchange systems can support Nigeria's economic resilience, but only when they are backed by credible institutions and disciplined macroeconomic management.
By reinforcing this, Peter Engbo Rasmussen, economist from Nigeria countries, said: “Nigeria's commitment to fiscal reform is crucial to build a resilient economy. The CFR reveals that the strengthening of non -oil income and the improvement of public financial management will not only reduce confidence in volatile markets of volatile oil markets, but also provide the necessary fiscal space to invest in people and infrestructure. ” “
Beyond fiscal policy, the CFR aligns with the perspectives of the private sector. Dr. Joseph Ogebe, Head of Research and Development of the Nigeria Economic Summit (NESG), echoed the attention of the inflationary pressure report and the role of productivity.
He said: “The findings of the CFR resonate with our position in NESG. The stability of prices remains a pressing concern, with the inflation that disproportionately affects micro and medium companies. We continue to advocate for a deflation strategy directed by productivity and recommend a growth approach with depth that prioritizes sustainable economic expansion over the dependence of the taking of benefits.”
The 2025 Nigeria Country Focus report is part of the Bank's Annual Analytical Series that reflects the African economic perspectives at the country level.
These reports offer a localized analysis based on evidence adapted to national priorities and are designed to support the implementation of the reform, policy dialogue and development planning in the Bank's regional member countries.
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