Governor Ademola Adeleke has done what many doubted he could do just ten days ago when the EFCC froze his state accounts and his opponents smelled blood.
He won a second term, and by a margin that leaves little room for the kind of dispute over the final photo that often follows close elections.
INEC declared Adeleke the winner on Sunday with 511,067 votes, ahead of APC’s Bola Oyebamiji with 444,815, a difference of 66,252 votes. ADC’s Najeem Salaam came a distant third with 17,180 votes. A total of 985,079 votes were declared valid, while 20,721 were rejected.
But beyond the main result, the election produced winners and losers whose fortunes go beyond the victory of the governor or the defeat of the APC.
Some political heavyweights saw their influence strengthened; others saw months of endorsements and political mobilization produce little at the polls.
And in several cases, the results of their own electoral units offered another measure of the performance of their preferred candidates in their countries.
who won
adeleke
Adeleke is the obvious winner. He fought the election with his back against the wall, state funds frozen before the polls, an opposition that smacked of weakness and a final week dominated by accusations of violence attributed to both sides.
However, it came out with a clear margin.
Whatever is said about his first term, Osun voters gave him another four years.
The result also gives Adeleke a stronger political platform within the state as he enters his second term, particularly after an election in which opposition parties attempted to combine forces, directly or indirectly, to deny him victory.
Adewale Egbedun
The Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly also emerged from the elections with his political position strengthened.
Egbedun spent the final days of the campaign accusing APC figures Francis Eniade and Senator Francis Fadahunsi of threats and violence against Accord supporters in Odo Otin, while facing his own accusation of attacking Eniade in Okuku.
The accusations continued to be part of the turbulent final days of the election, but did not prevent Adeleke’s party from achieving victory.
For Egbedun, the result means that the election did not produce the kind of political backlash that could have weakened his position within the administration or the state legislature.
INEC
INEC and the returning officer, Prof. Joshua Ogunwole, will also have a quieter victory. The commission had to deal with 58 broken BVAS machines, a polling station where voting did not begin until 12:30 p.m., and 38 security incidents observed at the Center on election day.
However, the commission completed the compilation and declared the result on Sunday without the process falling into the kind of collapse that could have overshadowed the result.
For an electoral commission preparing for the 2027 general election, the ability to complete the exercise despite such incidents will form part of the post-election assessment.
who lost
Oyebamiji Ball
Oyebamiji’s defeat is perhaps the clearest. He led a campaign based on the APC effort to wrest Osun from Adeleke, backed by the endorsement of prominent former political officials and members of a PDP faction opposed to the governor.
But she finished 66,252 votes behind Adeleke.
For a candidate hoping to consolidate the opposition vote, the result shows that the coalition gathered around his candidacy was not enough to overcome Adeleke’s support across the state.
APC
The biggest political loser may be the APC itself. The party spent months positioning Osun as a major test of its ability to expand its influence between now and 2027. Losing the state therefore goes beyond the governorship.
Ajibola Basiru, the party’s national secretary, had already attributed wider political consequences to the result when he told party members in May: “Let me say it clearly: if we fail to secure Oyebamiji’s victory on August 15, the Senate and House of Representatives candidacies on the APC platform will be meaningless.”
By Basiru’s own formulation, the result raises doubts about the prospects of the APC in the 2027 National Assembly elections in the state.
Francis Eniade and Fadahunsi
Francis Eniade and Senator Fadahunsi also finished the elections under considerable political scrutiny.
Eniade’s final week was dominated by assault allegations, a threatening video and controversy surrounding the release of suspects rather than APC’s campaign message.
Meanwhile, Fadahunsi faced two separate controversies. Days before the election, a viral video showed him at Owa Obokun’s palace in Ilesa making comments that were interpreted as a call for violence against Accord members. He was later invited by the police and later released on bail.
Fadahunsi denied the interpretation of the video, saying it had been manipulated and meant “killing the Agreement with votes.” On election day, another video emerged from his polling unit in Ilase-Ijesa in which he allegedly instructed men to keep an eye on voters and warned them not to vote for his opponents.
The incidents put the APC campaign on the defensive during a period when the party needed to focus on converting its anti-Adeleke campaign into votes.
Najeem Salaam and the ADC
The ADC’s third place finish is another important election story. Salaam polled 17,180 votes across the state and did not win a single local government area. That performance fell considerably short of the expectations generated by the party’s campaign and the political figures it rallied behind the candidate.
Salaam also expressed concern on election day over the alleged denial of access to ADC operatives in several local government areas, while violence was reported at his polling unit in Ejigbo, where he was reportedly removed from the scene by security operatives.
The party’s inability to convert its political structure and campaign into a stronger vote at the state level will likely become part of the internal debate over its performance.
Atiku Abubakar
The result also has implications for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Atiku personally campaigned for Salaam in Osogbo, throwing his political weight behind the ADC candidate. But Salaam finished third with 17,180 votes, less than two percent of valid votes cast.
The Osun election does not determine the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, and it would be excessive to treat the result as a referendum on Atiku’s national political prospects.
That will be important as the opposition continues to position itself for 2027.
The PDP faction led by Oyinlola
The PDP faction led by former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola also has little to celebrate. The group, which included figures such as Fatai Akinbade and Tajudeen Oladipo, publicly endorsed Oyebamiji after accusing Adeleke’s administration of a lack of inclusivity. They made the political calculation that the APC candidate offered a better route than returning to Adeleke.
Oyebamiji, however, lost. The result leaves the faction that openly opposed the sitting governor without securing the political outcome it sought.
The backyard test
The election results also offer a snapshot of how some of Osun’s political heavyweights performed in their own electoral units. Results from voting units provide a local picture of how your preferred candidates fared at home, along with the broader state result.
Akande won the booth, lost the council
The founding acting national chairman of APC and former Osun governor handed over his own unit, PU 12, Ward 4, Ila-Orangun. Oyebamiji polled 181 votes to Adeleke’s 121, a victory for the APC by 60 votes. But personal victory did not travel. The local government of Ila as a whole, Akande territory, opted for the Accord with 16,211 votes against 12,934 for APC. The party’s senior statesman could take his seat and still lose his own council.
Oyinlola and Omisore lose at home
Former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who led the PDP faction that supported Oyebamiji, lost his own electoral unit in Okuku, Odo-Otin.
Accord obtained 125 votes there compared to APC’s 85. Former Deputy Governor and former APC National Secretary, Iyiola Omisore, who also endorsed Oyebamiji, also lost his electoral unit in Ife East.
Backup failed at home
Rauf Aregbesola, ADC national secretary, was one of the most prominent figures behind Salaam’s campaign. He brought Atiku Abubakar to Osogbo to campaign for Salaam and publicly expressed his confidence in the ADC candidate.
But in Aregbesola’s own electoral unit in Ilesa East, Oyebamiji got 256 votes, Adeleke Accord 43, while Salaam received only 13.
Salaam finishes third with his own LG
The outcome was also unfavorable to Salaam in his own local government of Ejigbo. Accord won the LGA with 18,458 votes, followed by APC with 16,195. Salaam’s ADC came third with 5,053.
Basiru won at home, lost statewide
Ajibola Basiru offers the opposite example. His electoral unit in Osogbo gave Oyebamiji 177 votes against Adeleke’s 60. Basiru therefore won his own electoral unit, even though the candidate and the party he was campaigning for lost the state.
WATCH THE BEST VIDEOS FROM Newslodge TV