PHILIP IBITOYE examines concerns that the APC’s growing supermajorities in the National Assembly and increasing control of state governments indicate a trend towards a one-party state.
WHEN the All Progressives Congress (APC) recently crossed the two-thirds threshold in both houses of the National Assembly, it consolidated its dominance at the heart of the country’s legislative institution. With 73 senators and more than 220 members in the House of Representatives, and now 25 state governors (numbers that continue to grow through waves of defections), the ruling party has achieved a feat not seen since the early years of the Fourth Republic.
But as the numerical strength of the APC increases, so do fears that Nigeria is inching towards a one-party state. Some opposition leaders, civil society groups and political observers warn that the continued erosion of opposition representation could undermine the democratic promise of multi-party competition. In his view, what began as a political realignment is turning into a quiet consolidation of power.
Former Kano State Governor Abdullahi Ganduje also raised fears in May when he declared that there is nothing wrong with Nigeria being a one-party state. “We are not saying that we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the desire of Nigerians, we cannot discuss it,” said Ganduje, who was the national president of APC at the time.
However, this domain is not without precedent. Nigeria’s young democracy has seen this before. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which governed from 1999 to 2015, once had as many as 82 seats in the Senate and around 260 in the House of Representatives, a much larger margin than the APC’s current numbers. Despite that supermajority, the country remained formally multiparty and the PDP eventually lost power to widespread voter rejection. What has perhaps changed is the fragility of the current opposition (with the PDP struggling to hold a regular convention and uncertainty over whether the ADC coalition will hold out before the 2027 general election) and the speed at which defections are occurring.
The key question is whether the APC’s commanding majority represents a dangerous drift towards one-party rule or simply another episode of Nigeria’s cyclical politics, where power gravitates to the center after each election and then disperses again.
Interests, survival and absence of ideology that drives desertions
Defection or “cross-carpeting” is not new in Nigerian politics. From the First Republic to the present day, party loyalty has often taken a backseat to personal ambition and survival. However, in recent months the pace of entry into the APC has accelerated. Lawmakers from the PDP, Labor Party and smaller parties have cited internal crises, leadership disputes or “alignment with the federal government” as reasons for switching allegiances. The latest governor to defect to the APC, Governor Duoye Diri of Bayelsa State, while describing the PDP as a sinking ship, said he acted in the interest of his state to prevent it from being buried alongside his former party.
Political analysts see a familiar pattern: When a new administration takes power, politicians flock to the ruling party for protection, access and relevance. The rewards (committee chairmanships, appointments, and influence over resource allocation) may be too tempting to resist. In Nigeria’s winner-take-all political culture, the opposition often lacks visibility and patronage, leaving many of its members politically stranded.
Critics argue that these mass defections expose the ideological vacuum of the political class. They say political parties in Nigeria lack coherent philosophies or political distinctions. What unites politicians is not a shared belief system but the pursuit of power and clientelism. As a result, party platforms are fluid; Politicians can move between parties with minimal political cost or ideological contradiction.
In an interview with the Sunday Tribune, Olufunsho Akinrinade, a member of the APC in Osun State, who acknowledged that defections are not necessarily a normal phase, stated that “in countries where politics is ideologically driven, it is more difficult to cross the carpet. For example, you cannot be a Republican today and wake up tomorrow to be a Democrat.” [in the United States]; the differences are irreconcilable. “What we currently have is a system driven by interests and not necessarily collective.”
Similarly, in a recent interview on Channels TV, Yiaga Africa CEO Samson Itodo blamed the lack of a consistent ideology guiding political parties in Nigeria as a factor responsible for the constant defections of politicians, arguing that the country’s political party system is still immature.
“You see that this gradual navigation towards what maybe looks like a one-party state, and you talk about cross-carpets, has been reinforced because the entire political party system has not yet evolved and matured. So when you see all this cross-carpet, it just tells you that we actually have a very weak party system in the country. There are political formations that exist for no other reason than to field candidates and seize political power,” Itodo said.
While APC leaders celebrate the defections as a sign of confidence in President Bola Tinubu’s administration, opposition parties see them as an existential threat. The PDP, Labor Party and others have protested, alleging intimidation and inducement.
The fear of a one-party state
The perception that Nigeria is sliding towards one-party dominance arises from a confluence of factors that go beyond mere numbers. Given that the APC controls dozens of state governments, enjoys a supermajority in the National Assembly and wields enormous influence over the executive branch, critics fear that this concentration of power risks blurring the separation of powers and weakening institutional oversight.
Political analysts warn that when a ruling party becomes too dominant, democracy’s competitive advantage weakens. Opposition parties lose morale, citizens become disengaged, and the media may face subtle pressure to adapt. Over time, what remains is not overt authoritarianism, but “dominant party democracy,” a system in which elections are still held but the outcome becomes predictable.
Critics also point to the symbolism of the defections. Every lawmaker he crosses not only inflates the ruling party’s numbers but also signals to the public that the opposition is useless. The result is a psychological shift that normalizes single-party dominance even in a formally multi-party system.
Civil society organizations (CSOs) have expressed concern that this trend could stifle pluralism and weaken Nigeria’s democratic institutions. In a recent report detailing the state of electoral integrity in Nigeria, Yiaga Africa warned against “the continued disappearance of an effective opposition,” describing it as a threat to accountability and inclusive governance.
“The strategic use of power in power appears to be facilitating a shift towards single-party dominance, rather than being a natural consequence of the Nigerian first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. This trend suggests an attempt to predetermine the outcome of the 2027 general elections,” the report reads.
However, it is important to distinguish between dominance and monopoly. Nigeria still holds competitive elections, registers multiple parties and hosts a largely free press. The rise of the APC is largely due to legal and political maneuvers (defections, alliances and by-elections) rather than direct or overt suppression of its rivals.
Are fears of a one-party state exaggerated?
For all the alarm about a one-party state, history offers some perspective. The PDP once enjoyed a level of dominance that dwarfs the current position of the APC. Between 1999 and 2007, the PDP controlled the presidency, the National Assembly and more than two-thirds of state governments. At its peak, after the 2007 general elections, the party held 82 seats in the Senate and 260 in the House of Representatives, exercising legislative control far beyond what the APC has achieved today.
However, even then Nigeria did not become a one-party state. Opposition parties, although small and fragmented, continued to exist, participating in elections and eventually forming alliances that gave rise to the APC itself. The rise of the APC in 2013-2015 was proof that even entrenched dominance can be overthrown by building coalitions and changing voter sentiment.
An opposition figure and PDP Deputy State Publicity Secretary in Kwara State, Bashir Ashura, told Sunday Tribune that historical precedent suggests that the recent defections are not a natural realignment.
“In 2015, the PDP lost the center and many legislators defected to the APC. Today, the same cycle repeats itself, not because the APC has suddenly become ideologically attractive, but because our institutions are still weak and many officials prioritize self-preservation over service,” Ashura said.
APC member and public affairs analyst Oyeniyi Oguntola also allayed fears that Nigeria is heading towards a one-party state, pointing to the previous dominance of the PDP. “The current APC supermajority [in the National Assembly] it is neither new nor unusual… In fact, the APC has not reached the heights that the PDP reached at the peak of its power. This is a phase that will pass and Nigeria will not become a one-party state,” Oguntola said.
In addition, some analysts maintain that the opposition bears its share of responsibility. Internal divisions, leadership crises, and the lack of a coherent ideology have made it easier for members to defect as they race to avoid getting caught in the crossfire of infighting. Instead of placing blame solely on the ruling party, analysts say opposition groups must rebuild their structures, articulate alternative policies and reconnect with disillusioned voters to win power.
Political analyst Olawale Afolabi, who also rejected fears of a trend towards a one-party state, said voters will ultimately have the power to decide who wins or remains in power. “They [politicians] align and realign with any platform when it serves your interests. that unites them [politicians] It disperses them, and you may soon see them going their separate ways. Ultimately, power lies with the people, who can eliminate any party that does not serve their interests,” Afolabi told the Sunday Tribune.
Essentially, political allegiance remains fluid in Nigeria’s unique political system, and popular dissatisfaction can quickly upset the balance of power. Today’s defections can easily be reversed tomorrow, depending on the electoral fortunes and performance of the ruling party. While critics of the wave of defections to the APC may have cause for concern, history suggests their fears may be overblown.