Political strategist and coordinator of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, has explained why he believes a merger between the presidential candidates of the African Democratic Congress, Atiku Abubakar, and the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, may be difficult ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.
Ardo said Atiku was unlikely to withdraw from the presidential race, despite the possibility of retaining his support base if he decided to step aside.
However, he said Obi was more willing to withdraw from the race, but could lose the support of his supporters if he did so.
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Speaking to Arise News, Ardo identified the different positions of the two politicians and the reactions of their support bases as major obstacles to any potential coalition against President Bola Tinubu.
“My opinion is that Atiku does not have the propensity on his own to say, ‘I will resign’. If he says it, he will have no problem with his support base. But the problem is that he is very unlikely to say that,” he said.
“So Peter Obi has the propensity to say, ‘I will resign’. But if he says it, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base. His support base will not go with him. Now, these are the two problems.”
Ardo said resolving the two challenges would be critical to achieving any form of merger between the two opposition camps.
“Unless we are able to solve these two challenges, I don’t see the merger being possible,” he said.
He noted, however, that the inability of Atiku and Obi to form a coalition would not necessarily prevent either politician from posing a strong challenge against Tinubu.
According to him, each of the two opposition figures has the ability to alter the political equation and potentially defeat the president in power if they implement effective strategies.
“However, even if they don’t merge, individually, any of them have the ability to disrupt the order, depending on how you design your strategy,” Ardo said.
“So even if they don’t, they still have the ability to win elections against the incumbent individually..“
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