The Nigerian Economic Summit (NESG) group has predicted that the economy will expand by approximately 4.0 percent in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025), which carries the growth rate of the whole year to an estimated 3.8 percent.
The perspective, according to the group of experts, represents a modest recovery and a slight improvement compared to Nigeria’s growth in 2023 and 2024.
Presenting its projections in the private sector forum H1-2025 with the issue of the private sector forum “maintain the course of reforms: convert economic profits into social progress”, the NESG also projected an average inflation of 24.5 percent in H2 2025, closing the year by 24.0 percent.
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This attributed to the consumer price index (IPC), the low base effect and the potentially favorable results of the current reforms.
When describing the GDP growth route as an encouraging, the NESG warned that the rhythm remains below Nigeria’s true economic potential.
He noted that deliberate reforms and stabilization measures would be required to ensure broad growth in all sectors, instead of the narrow expansion recorded in recent years.
“The services sector will continue to promote economic expansion in H2 2025, driven by greater digitalization, growth of financial services and urbanization,” said the NESG. “Agriculture and industry will publish modest performance due to climatic risks, high input costs and infrastructure bottlenecks. However, the recovery of oil production and improved refining capacity will provide an elevator to the industrial sector.”
Despite the positive impulse, the group warned that projected growth levels may not significantly increase per capita income or generate a wide base employment without coordinated efforts to translate macroeconomic gains into a tangible social impact.
In inflation, the NESG said that pressures are expected to be relieved, helped to stabilize fuel prices, improve currency liquidity and relative convergence of the exchange rate.
However, he warned that structural bottlenecks, cost thrust factors and monetary close policy would maintain high inflation in the short term.
“The disinflation rate in H2 2025 will depend on the consistency of the reforms,” ​​said the NESG, adding that sustained implementation could generate a stronger price stability in the medium term.
In monetary policy, the group projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will probably stop its aggressive position in H2 2025, achieving a balance between supporting economic growth and curbing inflationary pressures.
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